eFXnews

  • USD/JPY: Targeting 116 In 1-Month On Trumponomics, Fed And Reflation - Danske

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 05:11:52 +0000

    We still expect the JPY to continue suffering in an environment with rising global bond yields and a higher oil price. We expect USD/JPY to increase further in coming months, as investors’ focus could return to ‘US

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 04:12:22 +0000

    As noted yesterday, the short-term bias is tilted to the downside and a move below the expected 1.0580/1.0750 consolidation range would not be surprising. That said, based on the current momentum, 

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  • EUR/USD: A Deja Vu Of 2005-07 But Little Benefit In Long EUR N-Term - Credit Suisse

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 02:53:37 +0000

    For all the talk of discord and chaos on the US political scene, this environment reminds us of the period around 2005-07 when commodities were strong, equity markets lacked volatility while 

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  • Preview: EMU: PMI - Barclays, SEB

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 02:01:46 +0000

    Preview: EMU: PMI - Barclays, SEB

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  • GBP: Limited Upside Risk On Balanced Positioning; A Sell On Rallies - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 00:53:14 +0000

    The GBP has been capped as of late mainly on the back of weaker-than-expected inflation and labour data. Elsewhere, relatively stable medium-term inflation expectations, as measured by 5Y inflation swaps, 

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  • How Do You Trade 2-Steps Forward And 1-Step Back In FX? - SocGen

    Date Published: Mon, 20 Feb 2017 17:53:53 +0000

    How do you trade two steps forward and one step back in FX? Not by looking for volatility to spike higher on the back of Fed policy, and not by selling commodity-sensitive currencies prematurely.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Mon, 20 Feb 2017 05:06:29 +0000

    EUR registered an ‘inside day bar’ last Friday but closed near the low of the day. While there is no change to the current neutral view, the weak daily closing suggests that the short-term bias is tilted to the 

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  • EUR: 2 Important Themes In Play: Impact On EUR/USD Direction - Nomura

    Date Published: Mon, 20 Feb 2017 03:22:35 +0000

    There are two important themes currently apparent in the euro area: 1) the strong recovery in inflation and in the economy, and 2) political risks ahead of the elections.

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  • USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Mon, 20 Feb 2017 01:19:11 +0000

    US data has continued to come in on the strong side, supporting our argument that the US output gap is closed and inflation should pick up. However, US real yields have remained muted, helping financial 

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  • CAD: Are Markets Wearing Rose Colored Glasses? Where To Target USD/CAD? - CIBC

    Date Published: Sun, 19 Feb 2017 23:54:35 +0000

    The Canadian economy’s been looking a bit brighter recently. But are markets too optimistic about a BoC rate hike?

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  • IMM Report: CAD, AUD, NZD Are The Only Currencies Held Net Long Vs USD

    Date Published: Sun, 19 Feb 2017 23:00:50 +0000

    Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Feb 14 & were released Friday Feb 17.

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  • Week Ahead: Risk On But For How Long?; Staying Short EUR/USD - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Sun, 19 Feb 2017 15:40:20 +0000

    Recently, global stocks have hit multi-year and (in the case of the US) record highs, while global bond yields and commodity prices remain close to their most elevated levels in years. The positive risk 

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  • GBP: Hard Brexit Moving Closer: Time-Line & Targets - Danske

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 21:48:59 +0000

    We still see potential for further GBP weakness in the near term as the triggering of Article 50 moves closer.

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  • CHF: SNB Allowing EUR/CHF To Fall; Looking To Sell As A Political Hedge - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 20:12:05 +0000

    We continue to expect the SNB to smooth the downside in EURCHF but only to manage volatility and no longer to manage a level.

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  • GBP: Sterling By Far The Most Undervalued Currency According To L/T Valuation Models - SEB

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 18:27:01 +0000

    GBP: By far, Sterling is the most undervalued of G10 currencies, in trade weighted terms standing almost 20% below its long-term fair value (LTFV) and by over 30% against the most expensive currencies (AUD, NZD), which is simply unsustainable.

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  • USD: A Week For 2 Halves: What's Next & How To Trade It? - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 16:49:56 +0000

    The week was a story of two halves for the USD. A good meeting between Presidents Trump and Abe, strong US data, including higher than expected inflation, and a somewhat hawkish tone by Yellen in

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  • USD/CAD: Neckline Of A Double Top; AUD/USD: Neckline Of An Inverted H&S - SocGen

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 15:46:30 +0000

    In a steady down move, the USD/CAD is approaching the neckline of the double top formation at 1.30, also the multiyear ascending channel limit. Monthly RSI is tentatively holding a support trend indicating 1.30 as a key level.

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  • USD/JPY: Lower Bound Confirmed But Topside Remains Heavy: Staying Neutral - BTMU

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 14:53:00 +0000

    USD/JPY has crept up to near the 114-level after Fed Chair Yellen’s slightly hawkish comments before retracing lower.

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  • USD: USD 'Conundrum' Is Temporary - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 14:06:53 +0000

    US data has been comfortably exceeding expectations, prompting the rates market to consider the possibility of the next hike being delivered as early as March, and a hike by May now looking more likely 

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 04:24:30 +0000

    While we indicated yesterday that the pull-back from the 1.0825/30 high two weeks ago is trying to form a base, the rapid rise that easily took out the strong 1.0640 resistance came as a surprise (overnight high of

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  • Preview: UK: Retail Sales - Barclays

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 03:11:57 +0000

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  • USD/JPY: Weak Demand For Dip-Buying Among Japanese Retail Investors - Nomura

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 02:11:27 +0000

    Retail investors’ views on the Japanese equity market have weakened slightly, according to the latest Nomura Individual Investor Survey (6-7 February).

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  • AUD/USD: Expensive, Vulnerable, And Set To Correct Lower - BNPP

    Date Published: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 00:52:21 +0000

    In Australia, January unemployment rate came out slightly below expectations (5.7% vs 5.8% expected), as well as the participation rate (64.6% vs 64.7% expected). We did not see any significant market reaction and AUDUSD is still trading at post-US election highs.

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  • USD: What The Latest Gain In US Inflation Means For Data-Dependent Fed? - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 21:33:01 +0000

    The January CPI report showed sturdy gains in both headline and core inflation measures.

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  • AUD/USD: 'Too High Too Soon': Where To Target? - Danske

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 18:59:52 +0000

    AUD/USD has reversed the move after US elections, which pushed the pair as low as below 0.72 around year end. The lack of details of the US administration’s economic plans has weighed on USD and 

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  • USD: Technical Struggle; EUR/USD: Bounce On Hammer & TD Setup - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 17:49:53 +0000

    The BBDXY neckline resistance area from 1240-1245 and the old trend line (dashed) has contained USD strength. Seeing the market fade USD strength after retail sales and CPI on Wednesday is not a good 

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  • AUDNZD: Pending Bullish Signal On Weekly Close Above 1.0730/1.0772 - NAB

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 16:23:54 +0000

    The low of 2015 holds the structure of a LT bottom and as such we have been on alert for confirmation that the correction of the past year is complete. Weekly RSI has produced this confirmation from a MT 

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  • USD/JPY: Risk Index Up But Details Less Constructive: Risk Of A Pullback - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 15:27:36 +0000

    At -0.95 (vs -0.70 on 9 February 2017) our risk index moved further into risk seeking territory.

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  • EUR/USD: Tech Support Around 1.06 But Downside Risks Build: Staying Bearish Targeting 1.04 - BTMU

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 14:34:29 +0000

    We expect the euro to remain under downward pressure against the US dollar in the week ahead.

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  • Some Tactical Plays In A 'Trendless' FX Market - SocGen

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 14:00:58 +0000

    With that in mind, it would not be surprising if today saw slightly trendless FX markets. As long as USD/JPY holds above 111.50, it looks fine.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 04:30:30 +0000

    EUR exceeded the ‘short-term target’ of 1.0530 yesterday with a low of 1.0520. The sharp rebound from the low coupled with oversold conditions suggest that the current pull-back (from the 1.0825/30 high two

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  • Preview: US: Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts - BofA Merrill, Barclays, SEB

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 03:09:54 +0000

    Preview: US: Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts - BofA Merrill, Barclays, SEB

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  • USD: After Fed Yellen's Testimony: Staying Bearish And Looking To Sell Rallies - Nomura

    Date Published: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 00:57:37 +0000

    Today’s siren song in currency markets is of upcoming Fed hikes, with many investors being lured into bullish dollar positions.

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  • GBP/USD: Choppy Sideways Range; EUR/CAD: Large M/T Top - Credit Suisse

    Date Published: Wed, 15 Feb 2017 22:08:16 +0000

    GBPUSD stays in a choppy sideways range testing the 38.2% retracement of the recent rise and the flat 200-day average at 1.2431/25.

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  • EUR/USD: Targets For A Decline In H1 Before A Rally In H2 - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Wed, 15 Feb 2017 19:37:14 +0000

    It is all about the USD and about President Trump’s policies for the EUR for now. Indeed, the sell-off of the Trump trades so far this year, following some profit-taking and market concerns for US trade 

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  • NZD/USD: Significant Bearish Reversal At Prominent MT/LT Resistance Levels - NAB

    Date Published: Wed, 15 Feb 2017 17:59:08 +0000

    Last weeks’ bearish reversal was significant, not only in terms of price action but also the key resistance levels that were rejected.

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  • CHF: SNB To Increase Intervention Again; Where To Target EUR/CHF? - BNPP

    Date Published: Wed, 15 Feb 2017 16:01:47 +0000

    EURCHF fell to a post-Brexit low below 1.07 at the end of January, likely on the back of reports of a large CHF M&A deal. However, the CHF has continued to rise in February, and we think the most important 

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  • EUR: Cash Ready To Buy Risk; EUR To Weaken Further - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Wed, 15 Feb 2017 14:59:48 +0000

    As the VIX is approaching the lows again,and with iron ore prices bursting 10% higher over recent days, we continue to see risk currencies performing well, particularly vs the EUR.

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  • GBP/USD: A Sell On Bounces Into 1.25 - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Wed, 15 Feb 2017 14:30:36 +0000

    In an environment of fairly capped central bank rate expectations, we believe that GBP remains subject to downside risks.

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  • Long AUD/JPY, Short EUR/CAD: Attractive; Breaking From Recent Ranges To Extend - SocGen

    Date Published: Wed, 15 Feb 2017 14:04:49 +0000

    Janet Yellen warned against the perils of the Fed dithering which, in the light of the last few years, is a bit rich. She also pointed out the Fed can’t see much of a relationship between wage growth and CPI inflation

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