eFXnews

  • USD: Tail Risks In The Headlights; What's The Trade? - Credit Suisse

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 21:54:18 +0000

    Today’s US presidential inauguration marks an important date for the FX market. In the period between the US election and today’s inauguration, the USD has rallied about 4% against the broad 

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  • Could Trump Talk Down The USD Successfully - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 20:13:26 +0000

    President Donald Trump has broken with the usual practice of leaving comments on the valuation of the USD to the US Treasury by contradicting the current Treasury's strong-dollar policy.

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  • AUD/USD: Trading Close To Fair Value; Positioning Close To Flat - NAB

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 18:40:46 +0000

    When AUD/USD was sub-0.72 and falling in the last week of December, there would have been very few (any?) takers for a bet the pair would be back above 0.75 before the second week of January was out. One

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  • USD: A Choppy Week For USD: What's Next? - Nomura

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 17:56:12 +0000

    It has been a choppy week for the dollar. Broad USD depreciation ensued following comments from President-elect Trump over the weekend around the dollar being “too strong” and a broad rally in US 

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  • USD: Pulling In Opposite Directions: Who To Believe? - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 16:14:13 +0000

    This week has pulled USD bulls in opposite directions. On the one hand, president-elect Trump leaned against border adjustment taxes and expressed concer

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  • USD/JPY: To Remain Volatile In The Week Ahead; Staying Neutral - BTMU

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 15:25:43 +0000

    So far in January, exporters have been covering their real demand, pushing USD/JPY lower. Japanese investors have also been making seasonal cash repatriations, supporting the JPY. These factors could weigh 

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  • GBP/USD: Broadly Range-Bound Targeting 1.21 In March - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 14:56:52 +0000

    While confirming that they will exit the EU as planned, it was also stressed that a disruptive Brexit cliff-edge shall be avoided and that the final deal will be voted on in parliament. Looking ahead, we believe 

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  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Targets For A S/T Recovery - SocGen

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 14:26:11 +0000

    After a steady down move, the EUR/USD tested projections at 1.0350/1.03 and also tested the lower bound of a multi-month descending channel. Signs of stabilization have emerged as the pair has formed a double bottom at those levels, and a pivotal low may have been achieved at 1.0350/1.03.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 05:12:45 +0000

    EUR dipped to low of 1.0587 yesterday but rebounded quickly. While the undertone has improved somewhat and a move above the 1.0715/20 high seen earlier this week would not be surprising, the 

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  • Preview: Fed Speaks: Harker, Williams

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 03:50:14 +0000

    Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve President Harker will speak on the economic outlook.

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  • USD: Beware Of The Impact Of US Treasury Q1 Cash Deluge - Danske

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 02:37:01 +0000

    The Treasury expects to draw down USD290bn from its deposits in Q1, which will add a corresponding amount of USD to the market. This amounts to a 9% increase in the monetary base.

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  • USD: What To Expect In Trump's First 100 Days - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Fri, 20 Jan 2017 01:13:49 +0000

    The USD bulls have had a dismal start to 2017 but are hoping that President Trump’s first 100 days in office can revive the dollar rally.

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  • NZD/USD: Targeting A Retest Of The Broken Uptrend Channel - NAB

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 22:19:22 +0000

    Price is in the process of completing its fourth consecutive up week. This aggressive bounce has negated the downtrend that began in September 2016 at 0.7486 (downtrend break confirmed by the recent close 

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  • Jan ECB: Watch ECB Communication For Possible Disagreements Within The GC - Barclays

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 20:40:08 +0000

    As widely expected, January's ECB meeting did not deliver any changes.  President Draghi made it very clear that the increase in headline inflation, which is due to continue in the months ahead, is

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  • Jan ECB: Draghi Remains Dovish; QE Purchases To Continue In 2018 - Danske

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 19:13:13 +0000

    The ECB did not deliver any surprises at today's meeting. The main conclusion was that the ECB 'will continue to look through changes in HICP inflation if judged to be transient and to have no implication for the medium-term outlook for price stability'.

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  • Jan ECB: Dovish As Expected - SEB

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 18:21:06 +0000

    Having already mapped its monetary policy course for full 2017 at its last meeting in 2016 (8 Dec), the ECB Governing Council did not deliver any further policy adjustments at its first Governing Council meeting today.

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  • BoP Back In Focus: FX Implications - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 17:10:46 +0000

    As we enter a year where the transition from monetary policy to fiscal policy is likely to become an increasingly important theme for many G10 currencies, we think there is likely to be a growing focus on how this rotation impacts the balance of payments dynamic.

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  • AUD/JPY: Bullish Breakout Targets - Credit Suisse

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 16:12:22 +0000

    AUDJPY signalled a bullish trend change in November 2016 on the break of its mediumterm downtrend from 2014. 

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  • USD/CAD: Staying Bullish & Long Post-BoC Targeting 1.37 In 2-Month - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 15:02:24 +0000

    The BoC policy announcement was broadly in line with expectations. Growth projections for 2016-17 were revised slightly higher but the statement brought back the October assessment that the risks to the outlook

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  • EUR/USD: Now Broadly In Line With S/T Fundamentals; Staying Neutral - BTMU

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 14:21:39 +0000

    The EUR/USD rate should continue to be driven by the US dollar leg in the week ahead. The US dollar has been correcting modestly lower early this year lifting the

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  • USD: Dips A Buy In H1; Fade EUR/USD Rallies Into 1.07 Targeting 1.05 - TD

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 13:52:50 +0000

    The greenback has given back some of its overnight gains but firmer on the week. A few factors have helped the move.

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  • Trading The ECB: Views From 15 Major Banks

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 05:37:49 +0000

    The ECB's Governing Council will meet on Thursday, January 19. In line with the broad market consensus, we expect little action at the meeting, based on the lack of market news since December. Specifically, we 

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 05:03:04 +0000

    Instead of extending higher, EUR dropped sharply yesterday from a high of 1.0715. The short-term undertone has shifted from positive to neutral and this pair has likely moved back into a consolidation 

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  • EUR/AUD: A Large Bearish Top: Targets For A Breakout - Credit Suisse

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 04:48:14 +0000

    EURAUD continues to hold a large bearish top and the spotlight remains on key support at 1.4032 – the 50% retracement of the 2012/15 rise and basing support.

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  • AUD/USD: Upward Correction Targeting 0.7700/20 Against 0.7150/00 - NAB

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 02:59:48 +0000

    Trend: Price broke down from its broad 2016 triangle in Q4 2016 and challenged the bottom of the nine-month range and our downside target at 0.7150/00 in December. The response to nine-month lows at 

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  • Brexit & Sterling: 'Hope For The Best, Position For Lows' - Goldman Sachs

    Date Published: Thu, 19 Jan 2017 01:03:24 +0000

    Prime Minister May’s speech painted a rosy future for the UK outside the European Union and at the centre of the global economy, but the near-term implications of the speech look 

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  • USD/CAD: Post-BoC Rally To Be Short-Lived: Where To Target? - Nomura

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 22:01:54 +0000

    As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, reiterating that “the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate”, suggesting a neutral and largely unchanged policy stance.

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  • Draghi To Be Dull; Sell EUR/USD On Any Bullish Reaction - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 19:51:42 +0000

    We expect Draghi this week to try to avoid any expectations on further policy changes. The dominant theme in Europe recently has been the acceleration in inflation and real economic activity 

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  • AUD/NZD: 2 Reasons To Sell Any Rallies Above 1.05 - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 18:31:10 +0000

    We remain bearish on AUD/NZD. First, New Zealand is enjoying a more fundamentally robust commodity rally, especially in dairy.

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  • EUR: ECB To Strike A Dovish Balance On Thurs; Market Neutral - SEB

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 16:54:02 +0000

    Having already mapped its monetary policy course for full 2017 at its last meeting in 2016 (8 Dec), the ECB is most unlikely to deliver any further policy adjustments at the upcoming, first Governing Council meeting in the new year on 19 January.

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  • EUR/USD: No ECB Surprises; Further Upside Into 1.09 A Selling Opportunity - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 15:59:26 +0000

    In line with consensus expectations we see limited scope for ECB surprises. If anything, central bank President Draghi should defend a more dovish stance in light of still muted core price 

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  • Jan BoC: No Surprise; Nothing For Markets To Chew On - CIBC

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 15:24:23 +0000

    To no surprise, there were no surprises from the Bank of Canada today, as politics aside, the world was unfolding as they expected.

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  • GBP: Hard Brexit Fears Peaked N-Term; Scope For Further GBP Gains Vs EUR - BTMU

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 14:56:05 +0000

    The pound got caught up in a big position squeeze yesterday which resulted in cable rising sharply by around 3%.

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  • Short EUR/GBP Tactically Here & Re-Sell GBP/USD On Further Bounces - SocGen

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 14:37:19 +0000

    There is more caution on the dollar today ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech. This is one of two speeches by Yellen scheduled this week before Trump’s inauguration on Friday.

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  • GBP: A Classic 'Buy The Rumor, Sell The Fact'; Bounces A M-Term Sell - TD

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 14:05:58 +0000

    Clarity from Theresa May over the UK’s Brexit stance helped sterling to consolidate. Indeed, the comments showed that the UK has no interest in partial membership. Instead, the comments underscore

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  • Trading The BoC - Views From 10 Major Banks

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 06:03:56 +0000

    We expect CAD to outperform other commodity currencies. CAD is not as vulnerable as MXN to trade protectionism given a prior free trade agreement which would take effect if the US backs out of NAFTA

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 05:23:55 +0000

    As noted in recent updates, we expect EUR to remain supported in the short-term as long as 1.0500 is intact. Upward momentum has improved further with the move above last week’s peak of 1.0684 and from

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  • Preview: Fed Speaks: Fed Kashkari, Fed Yellen

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 05:10:40 +0000

    Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari speaks on the economy.

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  • Preview: US: CPI, IP - Barclays, BofA Merrill, SEB

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 04:46:47 +0000

    Preview: US: CPI, IP - Barclays, BofA Merrill, SEB

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  • CAD: BoC On Hold; Staying Long USD/CAD Via Options - BNPP

    Date Published: Wed, 18 Jan 2017 02:34:51 +0000

    The market is currently pricing in unchanged policy by the Bank of Canada (BoC) at its meeting on Wednesday.

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